January 14, 2008

Election Idol

It's hard not to be pulled into the frenzy that is the 2008 Presidential primary. These are indeed fascinating times, with historic candidates in Senators Clinton and Obama. The much-noted "comeback" of McCain is worthy of a made-for-TV movie, although it's not clear which came first, the comeback or the media hype about the comeback. Still, in a previous post I had written McCain off altogether, so I stand corrected.
I note that Clinton has moved 12 points over Obama, and I suspect that this lead will maintain itself nationally unless Obama's team can mobilize segments which do not typically participate in the federal election process.
My sense is that America is, at heart, a conservative lot that will vote with caution rather than hyperbole. What one tells a pollster over the phone is often different that what one does standing in the booth, for there is nothing at stake in the former. "Undecided" typically means status quo, and few folks will be powerfully impacted by television "debates" since only the engaged and decided ever actually watch them. Meanwhile, the silent majority follow their favourite candidates on "American Idol".

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